The arrival fallacy

When I first started Keygen, I had this big lofty goal of making it to $1k MRR. It seemed like an insurmountable goal, but after a year or two, I eventually hit it. Not so insurmountable, after all!

But then the next goal arrived: $5k MRR. Then $10k, $20k, $30k — and on and on it goes, ad infinitum. I recently learned that this phenomenon has a name in psychology: the arrival fallacy.

The arrival fallacy is the belief that achieving a future goal will bring you fulfillment — only to find that once the goal is reached, the satisfaction is fleeting and a new goal quickly takes its place.

Arrival never feels like arrival.

I recently had a brief exchange with Jason Fried from Basecamp and 37signals about these feelings after finishing his book, REWORK.

His advice was "goals are no good." He pointed to an old post of his on the topic, which contained this quote from Jim Coudal:

"The reason that most of us are unhappy most of the time is that we set our goals not for the person we're going to be when we reach them, but we set our goals for the person we are when we set them."

I think that's very accurate. A lot of what I'm feeling does seem to stem from the goalpost — or what's 'enough' — changing mid-sprint. What's enough for a family of 2, isn't enough for a family of 5. What's enough for a solo founder, isn't enough for a team; for more families.

Because of this mid-sprint shift, I'm often left with the feeling that I've accomplished nothing at the goalpost, because I'm nowhere closer to the fulfillment that the original goal was supposed to bring.

I wrestled with that quote for quite awhile. (Still am!)

Jason's choice of 'no goals' works great for him.

But after reflecting, I don't think it'll work for me. To me, having no goals can be even worse than having endless goals.

I've come to realize that goals are both necessary yet dangerous.

There's this strange dichotomy between having goals and having none, and neither extreme is satisfying on its own.

There has to be some sort of middle ground. An equilibrium.

With goals, there's purpose, a sense of urgency, clear progress — but also pressure, failure, stress, and the realization that the ever-shifting goalpost never quite delivers the contentment it promises, and upon arrival comes a weird sense of guilt for not feeling content.

Without goals, there's calm, freedom, and time — but also a feeling of being adrift, a loss of purpose, and a creeping sense of inadequacy because you're not moving toward something.

And then we get to goals without a clear path forward.

Lately, I've found myself stuck in the latter more than usual. The effect is more akin to paralysis than any feelings of inadequacy.

Either way, it's become very clear that I'm deeply tied to goals, not just in terms of motivation, but in terms of my self-worth.

Those early milestones like $1k, $5k, and $10k MRR weren't just revenue targets — they were markers of my own legitimacy. Each goal reached validated my identity as a founder, an artist, a provider. Each gave me a renewed sense of self-worth.

But the problem is: the validation gained from reaching those goals doesn't last. It fades quickly, and so I move the goalpost — not just to grow the business, but to keep feeling like I'm 'enough.'

The next goal becomes a stand-in for purpose; it becomes the new way of measuring my self-worth. But when there's no immediate goalpost, or when there is but I can't find a clear path to the goal, that sense of purpose — and my self-worth — starts to unravel.

I've come to a slow realization that this is unsustainable.

An equilibrium needs to be found — some way of holding ambition without being consumed and defined by its existence.

Maybe equilibrium is just self-actualization.