Luck is a harsh mistress

I recently read Aaron Francis' recent newsletter issue (which you should subscribe to!) and was quite stirred up in his discussion on games either being a Game of Luck, or a Game of Skill.

Although I do agree with him, in regard to games, it's not the complete picture for the Game of Life — there are other strategies to be used, especially apart from Luck, and I actually believe that you shouldn't necessarily pursue the strategy of Luck at all.

I believe Luck can be a harsh mistress.

You can try your hardest to get Lucky, but there is no guarantee that you will. And actually, statistically, the most likely outcome of your pursuit of Luck is that you will be perpetually Unlucky.

And if Luck is the goal, or the means to success, you will eventually find yourself exhausted, and you will eventually give up.

But you probably shouldn't give up.

Instead, I think the most sustainable path is recognizing that, yes, life can be a Game of Luck, but if you have the Skill, it can also be a Game of Determination. Though I will warn that the path of Determination is not as exciting and glamorous as the path of Luck.

I would even argue that the path of Determination is not exciting at all, but it is deeply rewarding, in a way that the path of Luck can't deliver upon. It's also worth recognizing that, statistically, even if you are one of the Lucky ones, you will eventually find yourself void of that Luck, and you will have nothing to carry you forward.

Just as statistically relevant as Luck's elusive gaze, you will more likely, whether in life or business or what have you, find yourself in the deep, dark muck. And when you're knee- or even chest-deep in the muck, you can't rely on Luck to pull you out of it. Maybe you can once, or even twice — if you're Lucky — but not forever.

And the Muck is an unforgiving tyrant that only wants your ruin, and she is persistent. You can reach the highest mountaintops of success, the most enjoyable and fulfilling work, but she will find you and throw you into the valley as soon as you rest at the summit.

Personally, I haven't been very Lucky, but I've been very Determined, almost to a fault. Nearly ten years of Determination has led to millions in revenue, even though I broke nearly all the "rules" of business, and still do. I very often feel as if I write into the void, or that I am going the wrong way, or that I am even Unskilled. But my path of Determination eventually shows that to be a false assumption — I just hadn't waited long enough — and so I continue on the path.

In the early days, I don't think I had much Skill, at least in business, but I was headstrong and Determined to make it work, and I did. Eventually, my Skill caught up to my Determination, and it eventually paid off.

But even with Skill and Determination, it can still be a slog, and even more so now than in the beginning, because I now question why it can be such a slog at times, even though I've accomplished what I set out to accomplish: independence, and enjoyable, purposeful work.

It's the arrival fallacy, I think. But I do also think it comes down to human nature — for material things to never be "enough" — to continually want more, to continually be unsatisfied, to continually arrive at the goal only to be left overflowing with disappointment and emptiness.

In those times of muck, where it becomes a slog or unsatisfactory or flat-out disappointing — and eventually it will, repeatedly! — I think that's where the Determination comes in, because you can't rely on Luck to get you by forever, even if you have a lot of it.

I'm just now climbing out of the deepest and darkest muck I've ever been in, and the only thing that got me through was my faith in Jesus Christ, the ruling and sovereign King of Heaven and Earth, my family, and playing with Determination — recognizing that the muck I was neck-deep in had an end, even though I couldn't see it yet.

Over the last ten years, I've almost given up multiple times (I'd even say the pull to "give up" is almost yearly), but if I had given up at those points, I wouldn't be where I'm at today. So I stay on the path.

Waiting on Luck would have left me to drown in the muck. So I stand as a testament that life can be a Game of Luck, but it can also be a Game of Determination, and the obstacles of life can be overcome.

I encourage you to not rely on Luck, even if you have it.