The outlier paradox

Most aspiring founders think success follows a formula — one they can reverse-engineer and apply to their own situation. They believe if they copy what worked for somebody else, they'll get the same results. But success isn't evenly distributed like that.

The successful founders are outliers.

Yet people will build entire brands and online personas around selling a magic formula — a repeatable step-by-step process to be successful, just like them. But these people — the snake oil salesmen — are only successful because they prey on dreamers.

I've had dreamer friends stoked to follow a playbook on launching an Amazon store, or a coffee shop, or an e-commerce brand, or a drop-shipping company, only to find out the person who sold them that dream was selling a playbook for a path that didn't exist.

Even in those cases, the successful are outliers. They found their own path without any real help from the snake oil salesman. It wasn't the formula that made them successful, it was them.

These outliers don't succeed by following the well-trodden path — a magic formula. They succeed by carving their own path — by making enough choices that turn out to be 'right,' even if what's 'right' is only obvious in hindsight, never in the moment.

They made choices in uncertainty, fought through self-doubt, adapted and pivoted at the right times, and remained persistent, all without a guarantee that what they're doing will ever pay off; without certainty that what they're doing is right.

This is anathema to how most people think.

People seek certainty before they act — a guarantee that their work will lead to something — but success requires acting without certainty.

This is the outlier paradox.

The truth is, there's no formula. I love to tell founders to not give up too early — because that's what worked for me. It took me nearly a year to get Keygen's first paying customer, and a few more years to make enough to cover expenses, quit my job, and go full-time.

During those early years, the talking-heads on Twitter 𝕏 — and even my peers — told me to fail fast — to cut my losses.

Some of my peers gained early traction, and a few even saw explosive growth, while the others failed spectacularly. Some of them pivoted, while others gave up entirely. But even without any early traction, I trusted my gut telling me I "had something."

Even without those early signals, I didn't give up.

I thought, if I were to fail, I wanted to fail slowly so that I could exhaust any and every avenue I had at not dying. If I were to fail, I wanted to know that I tried my best — that I tried hard.

I failed a lot, but it was never terminal. I also succeeded a lot, and I saw signs of traction … eventually. Had I cut my losses, I never would've gotten this far. I always would've wondered "what if…"

It paid off for me. But there's no guarantee it will pay off for you. And yet, giving up too early only guarantees failure. (Which is the reason I like to tell people to not give up too early.)

Take what I've learned — what other founders have learned — not as a magic formula, but as a lesson to influence your pathfinding. You'll have to navigate your own uncertainties, make choices no one else has faced, and carve your own path through the muck. You'll have to embrace the uncertainty and not give up.

While you're doing that, you'll see others succeed while you struggle, and you'll wonder if they know something you don't.

They don't. Everyone is treading water, until they aren't.

There is only uncertainty, until there isn't.