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Is success just luck?

Friday, January 2nd 2026Avatar for the author, Zeke Gabrielse, Founder of KeygenZeke Gabrielse, Founder of Keygen

Some will say all success is simply "good luck." But I don't think "luck" is something we should be thinking too hard about, much less something we should be chasing after. It has an alluring gaze, but it's random and uncontrollable — and chances are you won't find it.

I think I have a narrower view of luck. I don't expand it to mean anything good involving other people or uncertainty. I think that road lessens agency and downplays skill. It cushions failure, which can feel safe, but it also misattributes success as "good luck."

You don't need your open source library to take off (mine never did).

You don't need to get invited to speak at conferences (I never did).

You don't need to get invited to speak on podcasts (I rarely did).

You don't need your blog post to go viral (mine rarely do).

I say stop looking at the 1% — the "lucky" — for a path to success, and instead start looking at the other 99% who are "unlucky" yet still found success. The 1% will tell you luck matters, and to increase yours, but they're biased — they're an outlier.

That's why I don't think all success is the result of some ephemeral force called "good luck." I don't see life as something that happens to me, but rather, it's something I can act within.