Catapults don't build castles

I've seen the idea floated around that increasing your surface area increases your luck. I agree with the advice to do. It's good to increase your surface area through publishing your work, sharing your thoughts, networking with people, what have you. But even with an increased surface area, you can continue to be perpetually unlucky.

So I don't rely on luck at all, because I've never had any. But I do have skill, and I do have determination. And I think, for most, determination can substitute for luck over time.

I've put in countless hours towards blogging, towards transparency, towards open source, towards obtaining recognition, and none of it has ever materially moved the needle more than offering a good product and simply existing — day in and day out.

Like I said: perpetually unlucky. But it turns out I don't need it. And believe it or not, you probably don't either.

Capturing luck has an allure, but she's a harsh mistress. One can waste lifetimes in search of a little bit of luck, when they could've made real progress without it — without even thinking about "getting lucky."

Most builders confuse "no catapult" with "no progress" — or even flat-out failure. For a lot of people, instant gratification is a requirement to even start moving. If it's not viral, it's a failure. If it fails, just try again. This is repeated over and over and over and over.

Don't hit the front page of Hacker News? Failure.

Don't get a customer in week 1? Failure.

Don't hit $1k MRR in a month? Failure.

This way of thinking starts with you building a catapult, filling it full of bricks, and then expecting the bricks to fly through the air and land in the form of a castle. But chances are it'll just be a big pile a rubble that you'll have to build up yourself, brick by brick — exactly where you would've ended up if you'd skipped the catapult entirely.

Sure, you might get lucky — but probably not!

So I say skip the catapult and just build — brick by brick. You'll probably have to do it anyway, unless you give up after YOLOing your big pile of bricks into the air and praying for a castle. But if you don't give up, and you keep building, you'll see progress — eventually.

That isn't skill with compounding luck, it's skill with unrelenting determination. I think there's a difference.